Stats Entertainment – Round 21

by Andrew Gigacz

IGNORING THE OBVIOUS – FINAL EIGHT NOT SO FINAL

Well, the top 8 is settled, if not exactly in order, then at least in its composition. Or so the media would have you believe. But they seem to be ignoring one obvious point. It will only take a couple of games to fall a certain way and the final 8 WILL change.

A simple 238 point win by Fremantle over Carlton will mean that all North will to do in the last match of the home and away season is to beat Melbourne by the same margin.

Sure, the Roos will have to beat Fitzroy’s 1979 biggest margin in history but let’s not forget that the side that lost that match was Melbourne. And it’s only 20 years ago that John Longmire beat the Demons’ score off his own boot as North smashed Melbourne to smithereens. (20 years is not that long is it? Certainly not according to any Collingwood supporters I speak to.) Read the rest of this entry »

Stats Entertainment – Round 20

by Andrew Gigacz

HOW TO BE A DOGS SUPPORTER 101: LESSON 20 – COPING WITH SPIFLICATION

Stats lovers, my apologies for the late arrival of this week’s numerical and lexicological missive. As a Doggies’ fan my recovery from Saturday night’s debacle has been slow. History tells me that I should have recovered more quickly but, with the Dogs not having lost a game by more than 10 points since Round 4, I think I can be excused for not seeing that Doggie disaster coming.

But the coping mechanisms have kicked in, and I offer to fellow Footscray fans the following relief: if we view the loss through binary eyes, and then convert the margin to decimal, then the Western Bulldogs actually only lost by 5 points. That’s a pretty good effort against the reigning premier!

(Remember folks, as my son Spencer advises me – there are only 10 kinds of people in this world: those who understand binary, and those who don’t.) Read the rest of this entry »

Stats Entertainment – Round 19

by Andrew Gigacz

TOPIC

I don’t claim it as my own stat; indeed, it seems that everyone is talking about it. But it’s one worthy of mention, particularly if you barrack against Collingwood. Which statistic is it? This one: for the past eight years, the team that has won the flag, has LOST the previous encounter with their Grand Final opponents. Here’s how the last eight seasons have unfolded for the Grand Finalists:

2009: Geelong defeated St Kilda after losing to them in Round14

2008: Hawthorn defeated Geelong after losing in Round 17

2007: Geelong defeated Port Adelaide after losing in Round 21

2006: West Coast defeated Sydney after losing the Qualifying Final

2005: Sydney defeated West Coast after losing the Qualifying Final

2004: Port Adelaide defeated Brisbane after losing in Round 11

2003: Brisbane defeated Collingwood after losing the Qualifying Final

2002: Brisbane defeated Collingwood after losing in Round 8

Why is this so good for those who don’t like Collingwood? Well if the trend continues (and I don’t care what Andrew Fithall says; I know he’s worried), then Collingwood, should they make the Grand Final (and I’m not sure if Pies fans are aware of this, but they haven’t made it just yet) would lose to Geelong, St Kilda, Footscray, Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney, Hawthorn or North Melbourne, no matter which of those teams is their opponent.

And if they happen to play Melbourne in the Grand Final? Expect a draw and a Melbourne win in the replay. Read the rest of this entry »

STATS ENTERTAINMENT – ROUND 18

by Andrew Gigacz

GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY SLIPS THROUGH KANGAROOS’ FINGERS

North Melbourne will be lamenting missing a golden opportunity that slipped through their fingers on Sunday afternoon. A win over the Bulldogs by 257 points (depending on the scoreline) would have been enough for the Kangas to grab a spot in the eight at Carlton’s expense. However, the Roos fell an agonising 328 points short, losing to the Dogs by 71 points.

North coach Brad Scott will be ruing a few costly errors from Sunday’s game that could have made all the difference. Read the rest of this entry »

STATS ENTERTAINMENT ROUND 17

by Andrew Gigacz

NEVER IN DOUBT

If anyone out there, who considers themselves a knowledgeable person on footy, had any doubt that Friday night’s match between the Hawks and the Saints was always going to be a draw, let me tell you, they were kidding themselves. There were so many pointers to these two sides ending up level at the end of the game that even a casual AFL observer should have picked up on the inevitability of it.

The first pointers were the games each side had against the Western Bulldogs earlier in the year. Both matches were played on a Friday night and both ended up in a 3-point victory over the Dogs. Clearly, if those two victors were to meet on a Friday night, as they did, they were going to end up level. Read the rest of this entry »

STATS ENTERTAINMENT – ROUND 16

by Andrew Gigacz

ROUGH AND REGULAR

We begin this week’s report with an apology from me for the irregular appearance of Gigs’ Stats in recent times. Rest assured that I have altered my diet to include a far higher daily quantity of statistical roughage, which should result in a far more regular diatribe of useless facts and figures emanating from me “going forward”. (Sorry, got caught up in election spin there.)

THINGS ARE LOOKING UP FOR ESSENDON – AND DOWN FOR KNIGHTS

After their loss to the Mark Le Cras-inspired Eagles on Saturday night, many Bombers fans have got coach Matthew Knights squarely in the gun. There are those who would lynch him if they got the chance.

All this is despite one very interesting fact that comes from the weekend’s events: Essendon actually CLIMBED OUT of the bottom 4 in Round 16, moving from 13^th to 12^th. A similar move over each of the next six rounds will have the Dons sneaking in the 8 just in time for the finals.

Which leads me to wonder: geez, if this is they way Essendon fans treat their coach when the team’s on the way UP the ladder, what will they do to him when the team’s on the slide?!? Read the rest of this entry »

STATS ENTERTAINMENT ROUNDS 13 AND 14

by Andrew Gigacz

STRIJK ONE

It might have passed by many footy fans, but the Round 13 clash between marked a VFL/AFL first. With Andrew Strijk making his debut, he not only became the first player in history with that surname but his first-up effort marked the first ever appearance of a player with a surname containing the 9^th, 10^th and 11^th letter of the alphabet – IN ORDER! Read the rest of this entry »

Stats Entertainment – Round 12

by Andrew Gigacz

THE WRONG CONCLUSION TO DRAW

What is it with these young modern folk? Lamenting a draw like this week’s blockbuster between Melbourne and the Pies on the rare occasion that one occurs. Sure, it can be an empty feeling for the players and supporters. And yes, neither team’s theme song is played. But let’s face it. Draws come around only once or twice a year on average. Based on an average of two per season, it means supporters of each team will experience that feeling only once every four years, roughly speaking.

And the fact remains that each side gets two points from a draw. Had Collingwood lost, then a loss to them and a win to the Dogs in Round 13 would have seen them possibly slip from the top four. The two points from the draw means that now can’t happen.

If we really need a song at the end of the match, then play “Up There Cazaly” or “That’s What I Like About Football”. Everyone knows those songs, and those who want to celebrate the titanic struggle they’ve just witnessed can join in.

The Draw is an integral part of Aussie Rules and must not be allowed to die like the drop kick. And shame on you Luke Darcy for suggesting it!

76 TROMBONES

Oh, that’s right. This is a stats column, not an editorial. OK, I’ll stop trumpeting my opinions and get on with the stats that really don’t matter. Read the rest of this entry »

Stats Entertainment – Round 11

by Andrew Gigacz

A SCENARIO THAT COULD LEAVE MANY AT SIXES AND SEVENS

The weekend results have thrown up an interesting ladder “midfield”, with five teams bunched together between 8th and 12th with a 5-6 record. If we add the following Round 12 potential results to the mix:

North Melbourne defeats Carlton

Hawthorn defeats Adelaide

Essendon defeats Geelong

Port Adelaide defeats Sydney and

Brisbane defeats the Western Bulldogs,

then we will have seven teams locked on 6 wins and 6 losses, covering 6th to 12th places on the ladder. Read the rest of this entry »

Stats Entertainment Round 10

By Andrew Gigacz

47^TH HEAVEN FOR THE SAINTS

St Kilda cemented their reputation as the 47-point specialists with their win over Adelaide on Saturday night. Since 2004, there have been 11 games that have had a final margin of 47 points. Four of those have involved the Saints and they’ve won all of them. The Dogs in the same period are two from two while Richmond have won two of their three 47 point games over the same time, including their drought-breaking win against Port on Sunday. Collingwood, on the other hand, have lost all three of their 47-point games since 2004. Read the rest of this entry »